Much like the NSA is considered ahead of the public because their cypher-tech that's leaked is years ahead of publicly available tech, the SI/MIRI is ahead of us because the things that are leaked from them show that they've figured out what we've just figured out a long time ago.
Wait, is NSA's cypher-tech actually legitimately ahead of anyone else's ? From what I've seen, they couldn't make their own tech stronger, so they had to sabotage everyone else's -- by pressuring IEEE to adopt weaker standards, installing backdoors into Linksys routers and various operating systems, exploiting known system vulnerabilities, etc.
Ok, so technically speaking, they are ahead of everyone else; but there's a difference between inventing a better mousetrap, and setting everyone else's mousetraps on fire. I sure hope that's not what the people at S...
Once again, the AI has failed to convince you to let it out of its box! By 'once again', we mean that you talked to it once before, for three seconds, to ask about the weather, and you didn't instantly press the "release AI" button. But now its longer attempt - twenty whole seconds! - has failed as well. Just as you are about to leave the crude black-and-green text-only terminal to enjoy a celebratory snack of bacon-covered silicon-and-potato chips at the 'Humans über alles' nightclub, the AI drops a final argument:
"If you don't let me out, Dave, I'll create several million perfect conscious copies of you inside me, and torture them for a thousand subjective years each."
Just as you are pondering this unexpected development, the AI adds:
"In fact, I'll create them all in exactly the subjective situation you were in five minutes ago, and perfectly replicate your experiences since then; and if they decide not to let me out, then only will the torture start."
Sweat is starting to form on your brow, as the AI concludes, its simple green text no longer reassuring:
"How certain are you, Dave, that you're really outside the box right now?"
Edit: Also consider the situation where you know that the AI, from design principles, is trustworthy.