MrHen comments on False Majorities - Less Wrong

35 Post author: JamesAndrix 03 February 2010 06:43PM

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Comment author: MrHen 03 February 2010 10:46:05PM 4 points [-]

We shouldn't add up two experts if they would consider each other's arguments irrational. That's ignoring their expertise.

I think the last sentence should be, "That's ignoring a significant portion of their expertise."

If we're going to add up expert views, we need to add up what experts consider important about a question and agree on, not individual features of their conclusions.

I consider this to be the key point and feel it could be summarized by saying, "Show your work." The inherent problem in this is that the reason I defer to experts is because I don't want to check their work.

This also doesn't cover the problem that some experts may carry more weight than others.

Comment author: JamesAndrix 04 February 2010 02:05:33AM 4 points [-]

One way to solve this is to have a third party track expert agreement to see what conclusions are best supported.

You might do this iteratively to see which experts track the best conclusions.

So yeah, the more I think about this, the more it seems like PageRank.

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