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Kevin comments on The Craigslist Revolution: a real-world application of torture vs. dust specks OR How I learned to stop worrying and create one billion dollars out of nothing - Less Wrong
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Comments (219)
Correct. "Surely" is too strong, I'd put the probability at 50/50 of it actually happening. Maybe lower. The expected value is still worth the effort, even if you assign a 10% probability of the whole thing happening.