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Warrigal comments on Deception and Self-Doubt - Less Wrong
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Even if it is a gut feeling and not an explicit lie, he is still showing that his facts are weak since he's resorting to emotions.
"Relinquish the emotion which rests upon a mistaken belief, and seek to feel fully that emotion which fits the facts."
Emotions are highly fallible, but they're also efficient. If you're a perfect Bayesian, you'll think everything through completely, without emotion; if your brain contains a mere 30 billion neurons, you'll use thoughts for the most important things and also emotions for everything.