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wnoise comments on Shock Levels are Point Estimates - Less Wrong
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Let's work out the ranges:
Both futurists should, of course, expect (0.8) technologies of radical change. The ignorant one with roughly 41% chance of none of them, 41% chance of 1, 15% chance of 2, 2% chance of 3, and 0.2% chance of all 4.
The more realistic, but still outrageously high chances for all but MM, chances, give 27% chance for nothing, 66% chance of 1, 7 % chance of 2, and .1% chance for 3 or more, and negligible chance for 4.