I think a better analogy to shock levels is not predictions about the future, but rather, the ability to think about a certain class of predictions without generating large amounts of emotion. Hence, being able to predict that my Shock Level will go up is really not a violation of conservation of expected evidence, because my Shock Level is really a property of emotional reactions, not beliefs. If I practice standing right in front of cliffs every day for a month, I can predict reasonably confidently that I'll have less fear of heights at the end of the month than at the beginning- same principle.