If this is really true, and I think it is, shock levels are an example of human insanity. If you ask me to estimate some quantity, and track how my estimates change over time, you should expect it to look like a random walk if I’m being rational. Certainly I can’t expect that my estimate will go up in the future. And yet shock levels mostly go up, not down.

Insanity, or ignorance. I don't think most people expect their own shock levels (defined this way) to go up, or know that others' shock levels mostly go up. If Alice knows more than Bob, and Bob doesn't know about Alice, is it insane for Alice to be able to predict how Bob's beliefs will change as he learns the things she knows?

(Not to say that people aren't insane, of course. Besides point estimation, fighting a rearguard retreat against the evidence seems like a big factor.)