If this is really true, and I think it is, shock levels are an example of human insanity. If you ask me to estimate some quantity, and track how my estimates change over time, you should expect it to look like a random walk if I’m being rational. Certainly I can’t expect that my estimate will go up in the future. And yet shock levels mostly go up, not down.

Computer programmers with decades of experience still systematically underestimate how much time it will take to write and debug a program. The time-to-completion estimate for every project goes up over the course of the project.

I don't think most people even consider the possibilities that you suggest they are dismissing due to their being point estimates.