Bo102010 comments on Hayekian Prediction Markets? - Less Wrong

9 Post author: David_J_Balan 15 February 2010 11:50PM

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Comment author: Chronos 16 February 2010 02:44:48AM *  14 points [-]

As a separate sidebar regarding logistics, it's interesting to note that Wal-mart's shipping component is effectively being subsidized by the federal government, by way of the U.S. Interstate system.

While I'm not so much of a libertarian that I think the Interstate system was a bad idea, it is important to note that the Interstate system created an entire category of business (shipping via truck) that directly harmed two existing industries (shipping via boat, shipping via train) and stunted the growth of a third (shipping via plane). This would be all fine and dandy if shipping via truck were more efficient after considering all externalities. But firstly you have the environmental cost of burning gasoline/diesel, including a not-insubstantial impact on the global climate. And secondly you have the more direct economic cost of road wear.

Road wear is a funny thing. The rule of thumb is that road damage accumulates with the fourth power of the weight per axle. A single car with passengers has perhaps 2,000 pounds spread evenly over two axles, for a road wear of O(10^12) times a tiny constant per mile driven. A large truck, of the kind used by Wal-mart, has perhaps 50,000 pounds spread evenly over eight axles (18 wheels, minus two for the cab weight, divided by two to convert to axles). That's a road wear of O(10^15) times constant per mile driven, or 1,000 times greater than a passenger car.

On rural interstates, trucks form between 10% and 50% of traffic.

Thus almost all highway repair dollars are artificially propping up the trucking industry, creating phony profits for the trucking companies by siphoning tax dollars from citizens.

Comment author: Bo102010 16 February 2010 02:53:42AM 5 points [-]

Shout it from the rooftops! Similar lines of thought apply for employers and schools.

I've been challenged by people who find out I'm a libertarian with arguments like "WELL WHAT ABOUT ROADS HUH? The Interstates are something government does well! How could we keep up highways without government?"

I have to patiently explain "I'm not against government. Or public roads. I do think, however, that companies that make their profits off roads have an interest in their upkeep, and it would be more efficient if that interest was at least partially privatized."

Comment author: SilasBarta 16 February 2010 11:30:38PM 1 point [-]

For me, the problem regarding roads is not "who will build them?" or "who will pay for them?" That part's easy: 1) construction workers, and 2) those use use the roads, or, in cases of low-density roads where it's infeasible to collect or calculate tolls, the local HOA/merchant association.

The hard part is: what happens to the rights of people today? It's extremely unfair to say, "hey, you have to start paying for this road now, which you previously had the unlimited right to use". So, the issue of weighing historical rights vs. egress/passthrough rights vs. road owners' rights is where the real difficulty lies.

Comment author: Bo102010 17 February 2010 12:43:16AM *  0 points [-]

Wholly agree. However, it's easy to imagine fair ways to phase in changes - e.g. announce that in 20 years we're going to start charging for this road (or selling rights to it, or whatever). We'll pay you subsidies that decrease each year for the next 10 years after that. We would have had to re-do the road with your tax dollars by then anyway, so you're not worse off.

Comment author: SilasBarta 17 February 2010 03:19:38AM 0 points [-]

Right. Another way would be to take the toll revenues and from them, give each person enough to afford "average driving" so that you would only lose on net from driving more than usual. Etc.

I agree that the problem is tractable, it's just that this is the most difficult part, and those that address it give it the least attention.