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MichaelBishop comments on Open Thread: February 2010, part 2 - Less Wrong
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Have people previously tried/discussed this calibration diagnostic?
http://projectionpoint.com/
I think that link was posted earlier. I got an average score; don't recall the exact number. I was disappointed in my performance, but tsuyoku naritai.
Cool, I got a 90. This quiz actually tests your calibration on estimating the veracity of a very special class of statement, for which your prior is .5 and which is often deliberately tricky. To give a (made-up) example:
"Henry VI defeated Richard III at the Battle of Bosworth Field in 1485." (It was Henry VII, not Henry VI.)
This class of statement doesn't show up that often in real life.
Then you're not really guessing at the truth of the statement. Instead you're guessing at the state of mind of the examiner, which involves a very different set of heuristics and biases.
Keep doing that and you may end up thinking, "maybe the correct answer is that he didn't defeat him because it was a Pyrrhic victory? Maybe Bosworth is spelled wrong? Maybe there's a dispute over the right year due to difficulties inherent in dating medieval events?"
I took the quiz without assuming my prior was .5, and got a very very low score.
I just tried it. It may be noteworthy that I'm having a 'bad brain day' - low-grade headache with mild to moderate fogginess. I expected to do poorly, and wound up being pretty conservative with my guesses as a result of that. I got an 86.
That reminds me of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depressive_realism
I hadn't seen it before. I just tried it and got a 63.