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AdeleneDawner comments on Open Thread: February 2010, part 2 - Less Wrong
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Have people previously tried/discussed this calibration diagnostic?
http://projectionpoint.com/
I just tried it. It may be noteworthy that I'm having a 'bad brain day' - low-grade headache with mild to moderate fogginess. I expected to do poorly, and wound up being pretty conservative with my guesses as a result of that. I got an 86.
That reminds me of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depressive_realism