komponisto comments on Case study: abuse of frequentist statistics - Less Wrong

25 Post author: Cyan 21 February 2010 06:35AM

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Comment author: SilasBarta 21 February 2010 11:39:35PM *  0 points [-]

The likelihood ratio P(E|H)/P(E|~H) is entirely independent of the prior P(H)

In theory, yes, but we're talking about a purported "unswayable Bayesian". If someone strongly believes leprechauns don't exist (low P(H), where H is "leprechauns exist" ), they should strongly expect not to see evidence of leprechauns (low P(E|~H), where E is direct evidence of leprechauns, like finding one in the forest), which suggests a high likelihood ratio P(E|H)/P(E|~H).

I remember Eliezer Yudkowsky referring to typical conversations that go like:

Non-rationalist: "I don't think there will ever be an artificial general intelligence, because my religion says that can't happen."
EY: "So if I showed you one, that means you'd leave your religion?"

Comment author: komponisto 22 February 2010 12:29:17AM *  0 points [-]

P(E) = P(E|H) P(H) + P(E|~H)P(~H)

The quantities P(H), P(E|H), and P(E|~H) are in general independent of each other, in the sense that you can move any one of them without changing the others -- provided you adjust P(E) accordingly.

Comment author: SilasBarta 22 February 2010 12:38:22AM 0 points [-]

Thanks, that helps. See how I apply that point in my reply to Psy-Kosh here.