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SilasBarta comments on Case study: abuse of frequentist statistics - Less Wrong
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*blinks* I think I'm extra confused. The law of conservation of probability is basically just saying that the change in belief may be large or small, so evidence may be strong or weak in that sense. But that doesn't leave the likelihoods up for grabs, (well, okay, P(E|~H) could depend on how you distribute your belief over the space of hypotheses other than H, but... I'm not sure that was your point)
Okay, point conceded ... that still doesn't generate a result that matches the intuition I had. I need to spend more time on this to figure out what assumptions I'm relying on to claim that "extremely wrong beliefs force quick updates".