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Roko comments on Shock Level 5: Big Worlds and Modal Realism - Less Wrong
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It sounds a bit chicken-and-egg to me. My subjective probability estimate of simulators' motivations comes great part from the frequency and nature of observed bizarre events. Based on what I know about my universe the vast majority of my simulators don't interfere with my physical laws.
I hear things like this a lot, but I'm not sure if I've heard a clear reason to think that the people that the simulators (of a long-running, naturalistic simulation) are interested in should be more likely to be conscious, or otherwise gain any sort of epistemological or metaphysical significance.
"interesting" is very much the wrong word though. More like informative regarding the optimization target that one cooperates by pursuing.
Isn't the measure of the set of me not in simulations (in a big world) equal to the probability that I'm not in a simulation (if there's only one of me)?