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Roko comments on Shock Level 5: Big Worlds and Modal Realism - Less Wrong
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Does this theory really alter the probability that your next chocolate bar will turn into a hamster? After all, if there were only one of you, maybe there's a one in a trillion chance that one is in a simulation whose alien overlords will turn a chocolate bar into a hamster. If there are a trillion of you, and one of those trillion is in such a simulation, and your subjective experience has an equal chance of continuing down any branch, then the probability of the bar turning into the hamster is still one in a trillion. Although I've never seen a proof, intuitively you'd expect those two probabilities to be the same, or at least not be able to predict how they differ.
It all adds up to normality...except that this takes a lot of the oomph out of the project to reduce existential risk. Saving all humanity from destruction makes a much better motivator for me than reducing the percentage of branches of humanity that end in destruction by an insignificaaEEEEGH MY KEYBOARD JUST TURNED INTO A BADGER!!11asdaghf
It sounds a bit chicken-and-egg to me. My subjective probability estimate of simulators' motivations comes great part from the frequency and nature of observed bizarre events. Based on what I know about my universe the vast majority of my simulators don't interfere with my physical laws.
I hear things like this a lot, but I'm not sure if I've heard a clear reason to think that the people that the simulators (of a long-running, naturalistic simulation) are interested in should be more likely to be conscious, or otherwise gain any sort of epistemological or metaphysical significance.
"interesting" is very much the wrong word though. More like informative regarding the optimization target that one cooperates by pursuing.
Isn't the measure of the set of me not in simulations (in a big world) equal to the probability that I'm not in a simulation (if there's only one of me)?