roland comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong
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Well argued, but if you credit the U.S. government such brazen cruelty toward the citizens it nominally serves, then why would the government need a pretense at all? Why not invade with only forged documents and lies? No self-inflicted wound should be necessary; the U.S. military may not fear intervention by other nations' forces if they appear to only pick on a few small oil-rich nations.
Forged documents and lies are not enough to convince the public opinion or better to arouse strong emotions, something more salient is needed. You have to remember, at 9-11 basically the whole world stood still watching the events unfold. Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks#cite_note-155
Btw article 5 allows the use of armed(military) force. This was the official NATO position even before there was any investigation as to who was supposedly behind the "attacks".
Anyone arguing against military action can be and still is decried as unpatriotic, callous towards the families of those who died. You cannot achieve this with just a batch of documents.