Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong
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Okay, I'm rising to the bait here...
I would really appreciate it if people would be more careful about passing on memes regarding subjects they have not researched properly. This should be a basic part of "rationalist etiquette", in the same way that "wash your hands before you handle food" is part of common eating etiquette.
I say this because I'm finding myself increasingly irritated by casual (and ill-informed) snipes at the 9/11 Truth movement, which mostly tries very hard to be rational and evidence-based:
This claim is both a straw-man and a false dilemma.
The straw-man: Most of the movement now centers around the call for a new investigation, not around claims that "Bush did it".
Some of us (I include myself as a "truther" only because I agree with their core conclusions; I am not a member of any 9/11-related organization) may believe it likely that the government did something horrendous, but we realize the evidence is weak and circumstantial, that it is unclear exactly what the level of involvement (if any) was, and that the important thing is for a proper inquiry to be conducted.
What is clear from the evidence available is that there has been a horrendous cover-up of some sort, and that the official conclusions do not make sense.
The false dilemma: Where "A" is {there is strong evidence that the official story is substantially wrong, and therefore a proper investigation should be conducted} and "B" is {the government was clearly directly responsible for initiating the whole thing}, believing A does not necessitate believing B. Refuting B (if argument by ridicule is considered an acceptable form of refutation, that is) does not refute A.
I'm still keen on discussing this rationally with anyone who thinks the Truth movement is irrational. RobinZ offered to discuss this further, but 7 months later he still hasn't had time to do more than allude to his general position without actually defining it.
Here are my positions on this issue. I would appreciate it if someone would kindly demolish them and show me what an utterly deluded fool I've been, so that I can go back to agreeing with the apparent rational consensus on this issue -- which seems to be, in essence, that there's nothing substantially wrong with the official story. (If anyone can point me to a concise presentment of what everyone here more or less believes happened on 9/11, I would very much like to see it.)
And if nobody can do that, then could we please stop the casual sniping? Whether or not you believe the official story, you at least have to agree that we really shouldn't be trying to silence skeptical inquiry on any issue, much less one of such importance.
Well, the main thing that'd cause me to mistrust your judgment there, as phrased, is A8. Pre-9/11, airlines had an explicit policy of not resisting hijackers, even ones armed only with boxcutters, because they thought they could minimize casualties that way. So taking over an airplane using boxcutters pre-9/11 is perfectly normal and expected and non-anomalous; and if someone takes exception to that event, it probably implies that in general their anomaly-detectors are tuned too high.
I also suspect that some of these questions are phrased a bit promptingly, and I would ask others, like, "Do you think that malice is a more likely explanation than stupidity for the level of incompetence displayed during Hurricane Katrina? What was to be gained politically from that? Was that level of incompetence more or less than the level of hypothesized government incompetence that you think is anomalous with respect to 9/11?" and so on.
That is a valuable point, and I have amended my A8 response to "MAYBE". The one detail I'm still not sure of is whether pilots would have relinquished control under those circumstances. Can anyone point to the actual text of the "Common Strategy"?
"Pilots for 911 Truth" has this to say:
"Screw Loose Change" seems to find this statement incredibly offensive, but offers only an emotional argument in response (argument from outrage?) and ignores the original point that these pilots were experienced in this sort of combat and certainly could have fought off attackers with boxcutters, with the "Common Strategy" being the only possible constraint on doing so.
I've added your proposed questions to the questionnaire, somewhat modified.
My answers are:
I've rephrased that last question as a matter of consistency: "Do you believe that the levels of government malice OR stupidity/incompetence displayed regarding Katrina are consistent with whatever levels of government malice or incompetence/stupidity you believe were at work on 9/11?" to which I answer (a) it's within the range of possibilities, given that the evidence remains unclear as to exactly what the Administration's involvement was on 9/11, (b) the issue of consistency between Katrina and 9/11 argues against the idea that Bushco were "just doing the best they could" on 9/11, since they clearly didn't do this for Katrina; (c) if the evidence pointed to a significantly different level of competence on 9/11 than it does for Katrina, would this be grounds for rejecting the evidence, grounds for trying to determine what might have changed, or grounds for suspecting that someone's "anomaly detectors are tuned too high"?
Please note, however, that I consider all of these issues to be very much diversions from the main question of whether a proper investigation is needed.