Douglas_Knight comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong
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Okay, I'm rising to the bait here...
I would really appreciate it if people would be more careful about passing on memes regarding subjects they have not researched properly. This should be a basic part of "rationalist etiquette", in the same way that "wash your hands before you handle food" is part of common eating etiquette.
I say this because I'm finding myself increasingly irritated by casual (and ill-informed) snipes at the 9/11 Truth movement, which mostly tries very hard to be rational and evidence-based:
This claim is both a straw-man and a false dilemma.
The straw-man: Most of the movement now centers around the call for a new investigation, not around claims that "Bush did it".
Some of us (I include myself as a "truther" only because I agree with their core conclusions; I am not a member of any 9/11-related organization) may believe it likely that the government did something horrendous, but we realize the evidence is weak and circumstantial, that it is unclear exactly what the level of involvement (if any) was, and that the important thing is for a proper inquiry to be conducted.
What is clear from the evidence available is that there has been a horrendous cover-up of some sort, and that the official conclusions do not make sense.
The false dilemma: Where "A" is {there is strong evidence that the official story is substantially wrong, and therefore a proper investigation should be conducted} and "B" is {the government was clearly directly responsible for initiating the whole thing}, believing A does not necessitate believing B. Refuting B (if argument by ridicule is considered an acceptable form of refutation, that is) does not refute A.
I'm still keen on discussing this rationally with anyone who thinks the Truth movement is irrational. RobinZ offered to discuss this further, but 7 months later he still hasn't had time to do more than allude to his general position without actually defining it.
Here are my positions on this issue. I would appreciate it if someone would kindly demolish them and show me what an utterly deluded fool I've been, so that I can go back to agreeing with the apparent rational consensus on this issue -- which seems to be, in essence, that there's nothing substantially wrong with the official story. (If anyone can point me to a concise presentment of what everyone here more or less believes happened on 9/11, I would very much like to see it.)
And if nobody can do that, then could we please stop the casual sniping? Whether or not you believe the official story, you at least have to agree that we really shouldn't be trying to silence skeptical inquiry on any issue, much less one of such importance.
I would add to Eliezer's comment about A8 that it suggests that your community is bad at filtering good arguments from bad. Similarly, your failure to distance yourself from words like "Truther" is another failure of filtering. It suggests that you are less interested in being listened to than in passing some threshold that allows you to be upset about being ignored. It's like a Hindu whining about being persecuted for using a swastika. Maybe it's not "fair." Life isn't fair.
That's normal. Most news stories contain non-explanations. When there's an actual opposition, the non-explanations take over. If you want to calibrate, you could look at Holocaust and HIV denial. I'm told they are well described by the above quote. or any medical controversy.
Often it is best to silence incompetent skeptical inquiry.
I used the term "truther" as an attempt to be honest -- admitting that I pretty much agree with them, rather than trying to pretend to be a devil's advocate or fence-sitter.
I don't see how that's a failure of filtering.
The rest of your first paragraph is basically ad-hominem, as far as serious discussion of this issue goes. If I'm upset, I try not to let it dominate the conversation -- this is a rationalist community, after all, and I am a card-carrying rationalist -- but I also believe it to be justified, for reasons I explained earlier.
"That's normal" -- so are you in the "people aren't rational so you might as well give up" camp along with komponisto? What's your point?
Holocaust denial and HIV denial are easily refuted by the available evidence -- along with global warming denial, evolution denial, moon landing denial, and most religions. 9/11 anomalies manifestly are not, given that I've been trying for years to elicit rational rebuttals and have come up with precious little. Please feel free to send me more.
Do you really believe this? Why? Who determines that it is incompetent?
Even the Frequentists (remember Bayes? It's a song about Bayes) agree that the probability of the evidence given the null hypothesis is an important number to consider. That is why I talk about what is normal, and why it is relevant that "Conspiracy theorists will find suspicious evidence, regardless of whether anything suspicious happened."
Yet people don't bother to refute them. Instead they pretend to respond.