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roland comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong
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The controlling feature for this prior isn't "willingness to kill own citizens" or "publicity stunt" but "massively risky". "Massively risky" is actually an incredible understatement. We're talking about people already at the top of the social hierarchy risky death and eternal shame for them and their families in hopes the hundreds of people part of the conspiracy keep quiet and that no damning evidence of a remarkable complicated plot is left behind.
The government's willingness to kill it's own citizens, such as it is, less often carries over to civilians and even less often carries over to rich white people on Wall Street. And for something that has help shaped the country... well remarkably little has changed in the direction that administration wanted to things to go. Indeed, why in all those years of waning popularity, wouldn't they try something like it again (maybe foil the attempt this time). If they're so powerful why not get someone else elected President?
Well, there is a lot of evidence left behind and that has been cited over and over.
AFAIK none of the people killed was exceptionally rich and/or powerful.
Wait, what???
Someone else? What are you talking about, every President in the last decades has been a member of one of the same two parties. Obama has not significantly changed the foreign policy and is moving in the same direction.
Well we're talking about the prior. Obviously we can then update on the evidence whatever that is. People will also disagree about what the evidence means but the point is this is a really unlikely even you guys are claiming took place. We can interpret the evidence but strange coincidences or some video footage not being released is not close to sufficient for me to suddenly start believing 9/11 was an inside job.
I don't know what exceptionally means here but, ya know, the WTC wasn't a homeless shelter.
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Look, I have no idea what your particular conspiracy is. So it is a little hard to examine the supposed motivations. My comments made sense given certain assumptions about what the motivations of such a conspiracy would be. Obviously they aren't your assumptions so share yours.