woozle comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 26 February 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: Jack 28 February 2010 08:07:02PM 0 points [-]

Isn't this what Bayesianism is all about -- reaching the most likely conclusion in the face of weak or inconclusive evidence? Or am I misunderstanding something?

Reaching the most likely conclusion while uncertain yes. But that doesn't mean believing things without evidence.

One anomaly does remain in that 6 of the alleged hijackers have turned up alive, but I wouldn't call that enough of an anomaly to be worth worrying about.

Really? I'd worry about that. That would be a big deal. At the least it would be really embarrassing for the FBI. But it isn't true either!

Comment author: woozle 28 February 2010 11:22:56PM -2 points [-]

But that doesn't mean believing things without evidence.

Lacking sufficient resources (time, energy, focus) to be able to enumerate one's evidence is not the same as not having any. I believe that I have sufficient evidence to believe what I believe, but I do not currently have a transcript of the reasoning by which I arrived at this belief.

But it isn't true either!

What is your evidence that it isn't true? Here's mine. Note that each claim is footnoted with a reference to a mainstream source.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 01 March 2010 01:02:44AM *  1 point [-]

What is your evidence that it isn't true? Here's mine.

What you provide is evidence that some people shared names and some other data with the hijackers. You haven't shown that the actual people identified by the FBI later turned up alive.

Here's Wikipedia on the subject.

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