PeerInfinity comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 26 February 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: Jack 28 February 2010 10:02:42PM 6 points [-]

The controlling feature for this prior isn't "willingness to kill own citizens" or "publicity stunt" but "massively risky". "Massively risky" is actually an incredible understatement. We're talking about people already at the top of the social hierarchy risky death and eternal shame for them and their families in hopes the hundreds of people part of the conspiracy keep quiet and that no damning evidence of a remarkable complicated plot is left behind.

The government's willingness to kill it's own citizens, such as it is, less often carries over to civilians and even less often carries over to rich white people on Wall Street. And for something that has help shaped the country... well remarkably little has changed in the direction that administration wanted to things to go. Indeed, why in all those years of waning popularity, wouldn't they try something like it again (maybe foil the attempt this time). If they're so powerful why not get someone else elected President?

Comment author: Alicorn 28 February 2010 10:08:20PM 5 points [-]

You know, I have little interest in 9/11 Truth, but I have no patience for the "but it would be so obvious" reply to Truthers. Here is how that conversation translates in my head:

Truther: I think the towers came down due to a deliberate demolition by our government. I think this because thus and so.

Non-Truther: But the government would never have done anything so easy to find out about, because it would carry massive risk. Everybody would know about it.

Truther: Well, if people were paying attention to thus and so, they'd know -

Non-Truther: BUT SINCE I DIDN'T ALREADY KNOW ABOUT THUS AND SO IT'S CLEARLY NOT SOMETHING EVERYBODY KNOWS ABOUT AND I CAN'T HEAR YOU NANANANANANANANA.

Comment author: PeerInfinity 01 March 2010 02:48:59PM 1 point [-]

obligatory XKCD comic: http://xkcd.com/690/

(actually, that's not as relevant as I first though, but I'll go ahead and post it here anyway)

Comment author: ata 01 March 2010 03:07:57PM 0 points [-]

A little bit more relevant: http://imgur.com/bx1th.png