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Peter_de_Blanc comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 26 February 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 02 March 2010 05:49:42AM 3 points [-]

One can't both think something is likely and think the evidence is weak and circumstantial!

One definitely can. What else is one supposed to do when evidence is weak and circumstantial? Assign probabilities that sum to less than one?

Comment author: Jack 02 March 2010 05:54:22AM *  0 points [-]

If the evidence for a particular claim is weak and circumstantial one should assign that claim a low probability and other, competing, possibilities higher probabilities.

Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 02 March 2010 06:06:08AM 2 points [-]

What if the evidence for those is also weak and circumstantial?

Or what if one had assigned that claim a very high prior probability?