JGWeissman comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 26 February 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: Academian 17 March 2010 01:46:03PM *  4 points [-]

Log odds of independent events do not add up, just as the odds of independent events do not multiply. The odds of flipping heads is 1:1, the odds of flipping heads twice is not 1:1 (you have to multiply odds by likelihood ratios, not odds by odds, and likewise you don't add log odds and log odds, but log odds and log likelihood-ratios). So calling log odds themselves "evidence" doesn't fit the way people use the word "evidence" as something that "adds up".

This terminology may have originated here:

http://causalityrelay.wordpress.com/2008/06/23/odds-and-intuitive-bayes/

I'm voting your comment up, because I think it's a great example of how terminology should be chosen and used carefully. If you decide to edit it, I think it would be most helpful if you left your original words as a warning to others :)

Comment author: JGWeissman 17 March 2010 04:53:32PM 0 points [-]

By "evidence", I refer to events that change an agent's strength of belief in a theory, and the measure of evidence is the measure of this change in belief, that is, the likelihood-ratio and log likelihood-ratio you refer to.

I never meant for "evidence" to refer to the posterior strength of belief. "Log odds" was only meant to specify a particular measurement of strength in belief.