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fubarobfusco comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong

81 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 26 February 2010 07:43AM

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Comment author: fubarobfusco 15 October 2012 07:58:57PM 1 point [-]

Don't forget the prior: "The official account of big conflicts with a lot of different interests involved will always leave some things unexplained or otherwise suspicious." "Government agencies who fail on a massive scale don't like to be transparent about how the failure happened."

"Governments in general, and the U.S. in specific, have a history of lying to justify war. I can think of several incidents where an official casus belli turned out to be either a lie, as in the second Gulf of Tonkin incident or the Iraqi WMD allegation; or at least significantly doubtful, such as the sinking of the Maine. In these cases, the 'conspiracy theorists' and peace activists were right; and I can't think of any where they were wrong. So they have more credibility than the official report."

Comment author: ChristianKl 15 October 2012 09:57:45PM *  1 point [-]

In these cases, the 'conspiracy theorists' and peace activists were right; and I can't think of any where they were wrong. So they have more credibility than the official report."

Knowing that the official report contains information that's false, doesn't lead you to know what's true.