fubarobfusco comments on What is Bayesianism? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (211)
Don't forget the prior: "The official account of big conflicts with a lot of different interests involved will always leave some things unexplained or otherwise suspicious." "Government agencies who fail on a massive scale don't like to be transparent about how the failure happened."
Actors in government agencies didn't think: "How can I convince that public that 9/11 wasn't an inside job." They think: "How can I influence the public perception of 9/11 in a way that my department gets more funding." Or when it comes to president Bush at that time: "How can I influence the public perception in a way that makes it more likely that I'll win the next election."
Newspaper journalists don't care about fact checking every single fact in their articles. It's way to much effort. If you have background knowledge you will in most news stories facts that aren't true.
"Governments in general, and the U.S. in specific, have a history of lying to justify war. I can think of several incidents where an official casus belli turned out to be either a lie, as in the second Gulf of Tonkin incident or the Iraqi WMD allegation; or at least significantly doubtful, such as the sinking of the Maine. In these cases, the 'conspiracy theorists' and peace activists were right; and I can't think of any where they were wrong. So they have more credibility than the official report."
Knowing that the official report contains information that's false, doesn't lead you to know what's true.