I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?
Regarding permitting karma transfers for the purposes of betting:
Apart from Morendil's objection, which I also endorse, I don't think anyone's noted that it probably will spoil the usefulness of betting as I take it to be understood by people on Less Wrong, following Robin Hanson and others.
Betting supposedly gets people to leave aside the bullshit (I mean this in the technical sense, of course) by staking actual utilons. Less Wrong karma, sorry to say, does not consist of actual utilons, even though people here value it at least insofar as they would rather have it than not have it.
So using LW karma as betting currency seems like a way to bring betting back toward the realm of bullshit-filled barroom (or Usenet) argument rather than a way to force people to be clearer about stating exactly what they believe to be the case.
(NB I understand that dollars = utilons is not exact, but it seems to me the approximation has often been considered a useful one in other discussions. You can in fact use dollars to buy things you want and need, something not true of Less Wrong karma.)
I disagree that not-being-money is the problem. I do, however, think that mixing the betting currency up with karma could have undesirable impacts on both systems.
My impression is that even fake currency serves some, albeit not all, of the purpose of focusing cognitive attention on probabilities over impressive sound-bites. And the fake bets do help us to calibrate since they actually make us formulate specific predictions that are actually written down someplace.