It's pretty well accepted that people play far, far different poker games when real money rather than fake money is on the line e.g.. I predict a similar outcome if karma were used to bet regularly.
On a system of poker for karma, I would expect that people (and their pokerbots) would play much, much better than people play in the "play money" games of online casinos. In online casino play money games, most people give away extra money in every single hand. In more complex play money poker games, such as http://gpokr.com, most of the money is won by people that are cheating by colluding, but at least they know how to play poker.
Karma poker should fall somewhere in between playing for real money and play money. People will play worse than the...
I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?