It seems that if there were karma transfers in place, betting against a funny picture post would be an almost guaranteed loss.
We could set up some ground rules that would exclude you specifically from starting the post, but I don't see how any rules set up in advance would prevent collusion to create the thread. Also, any karma lost for making an explicitly bad thread would be more than made up for with the 500 karma win.
Yes, I proposed a bet that was nearly a guaranteed win as long as I would be allowed to start the thread.
100 karma to Matt Stevenson for pointing that out.
I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?