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Matt_Stevenson comments on Creating a Less Wrong prediction market - Less Wrong
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It seems that if there were karma transfers in place, betting against a funny picture post would be an almost guaranteed loss.
We could set up some ground rules that would exclude you specifically from starting the post, but I don't see how any rules set up in advance would prevent collusion to create the thread. Also, any karma lost for making an explicitly bad thread would be more than made up for with the 500 karma win.
Yes, I proposed a bet that was nearly a guaranteed win as long as I would be allowed to start the thread.
100 karma to Matt Stevenson for pointing that out.
You're assuming, of course, that you wouldn't be voted down to below -50, in which case no one wins.
I was planning on making sure the terms allowed for me to make the thread as a comment on an existing thread. I admit that giving myself favorable terms was bad for the virality of this post. The whole thing would have worked better if Jack was willing to continue discussing terms with me, and he would have been more likely to do so if the terms of the bet were actually good for him.
I might try to get people to transfer karma via a different post. Does anyone want to play flip a coin or rock paper scissors for karma?