I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?
On a system of poker for karma, I would expect that people (and their pokerbots) would play much, much better than people play in the "play money" games of online casinos. In online casino play money games, most people give away extra money in every single hand. In more complex play money poker games, such as http://gpokr.com, most of the money is won by people that are cheating by colluding, but at least they know how to play poker.
Karma poker should fall somewhere in between playing for real money and play money. People will play worse than they would with real money, but they won't just throw their money away every single hand like people do with play money. We also won't have the extent of collusion problems that gpokr has because the complete Bayesian history of every player will be available for analysis and people can call collusion whenever they see it.
We could eventually set up a karma poker market. 1v1 Texas Hold'em is a game that bots can currently win against humans.