I will bet 500 karma that a funny picture thread will appear on Less Wrong within one year. If anyone is interested in the bet, we can better define terms.
Right now the LW software doesn't support karma transfers. Until it does and we can develop a more robust prediction market, let's just record the karma transfers on the wiki page that already exists for this purpose.
I will also give 100 karma to anyone that donates $10 to the SIAI before the current fundraising campaign is over.
10,000 karma for the first person with a karma transfer source code patch?
You're assuming, of course, that you wouldn't be voted down to below -50, in which case no one wins.
I was planning on making sure the terms allowed for me to make the thread as a comment on an existing thread. I admit that giving myself favorable terms was bad for the virality of this post. The whole thing would have worked better if Jack was willing to continue discussing terms with me, and he would have been more likely to do so if the terms of the bet were actually good for him.
I might try to get people to transfer karma via a different post. Does anyone want to play flip a coin or rock paper scissors for karma?