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I think this is closer to what's really going on than the rest of the thread. Most people do not understand that "Heart type II plus exercise causes pain tolerance change" does not imply that they can cause themselves to have a different heart type by altering their pain tolerance after exercise!
On some level -- conscious or otherwise -- they believe the uncertainty exists in the territory, not the map. Then they seek to change reality by cheating the evidence.
After posting I realized this could be interpreted as condemning the one-box approach to Newcomb's. I think Newcomb's is a different story but I'm having difficulty identifying why. Perhaps causality under Newcomb's feels different because it involves a zero-uncertainty map.
(I dislike Newcomb's anyway. But I do one-box.)