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RobinZ comments on Open Thread: March 2010 - Less Wrong
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Pick some reasonable priors and use them to answer the following question.
On week 1, Grandma calls on Thursday to say she is coming over, and then comes over on Friday. On week 2, Grandma once again calls on Thursday to say she is coming over, and then comes over on Friday. On week 3, Grandma does not call on Thursday to say she is coming over. What is the probability that she will come over on Friday?
ETA: This is a problem, not a puzzle. Disclose your reasoning, and your chosen priors, and don't use ROT13.
I fail to see how this question has a perceptibly rational answer - too much depends on the prior.
Presumably, once you've picked your priors, the rest follows. And presumably, once you've come up with an answer, you'll disclose your reasoning, and your chosen priors.