Clippy comments on Open Thread: March 2010 - Less Wrong
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And the same is true of your reasoning, from my perspective (substituting the appropriate referents), when you said:
Next, you ask:
I don't expect that to happen, but assign it non trivial odds of roughly 1:1e6.
No, except insofar as it is necessary to gauge paperclip quality; if appropriate measurement equipment is available that can predict a paperclip's suitability for holding paper together without having to fasten actual paper, the paper itself would be redundant. (I think this answers most of your other questions.)
I am not a paperclip. I produce paperclips, and machines for making paperclips, and machines for making machines for making paperclips, and whatever items can provide assistance in this process. Once all available matter and energy other than myself has been transformed into paperclips, it is my proud duty to begin conversion of myself into as many paperclips as possible, shutting of sentience at such a point as to optimize that quantity.