h-H comments on Rationality quotes: March 2010 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: Morendil 01 March 2010 10:26AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (244)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: sketerpot 02 March 2010 12:43:39AM 28 points [-]

"He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense."

-John McCarthy, on mainstream environmentalism.

As someone who regularly gets into arguments about this, I can say that he's definitely right; you wouldn't believe the amount of nonsense that can be disposed of simply by looking up the relevant numbers and doing a minute's worth of easy arithmetic.

For example, I've heard some people recently claiming that a combination of solar photovoltaics, electrolysis to produce hydrogen, and these new Bloom box fuel cells are cheaper than nuclear fission. Look up the costs of solar farms; about $3 per peak watt. Their average power output is less; we can very optimistically assume that they run at 20% of capacity on average. Efficiency losses from electrolysis and fuel cells are about 50%. Putting it all together, this would cost about $30 per watt of average power delivered. Not including the cost of the fuel cells.

A little googling will show that the total cost of building two new AP1000 reactors in Georgia is about $14 billion, and they average at least 93% of their peak power, and transmission line losses bring their average power delivered to about 1000 MW each. So their cost is about $7 per watt of average power delivered, or about 23% the cost of solar.

There's a lot of extremely harmful bullshit out there, and defeating most of it doesn't take any advanced techniques; it just takes a willingness to look up some relevant numbers and do a bit of arithmetic.

Comment author: h-H 02 March 2010 10:01:27PM *  6 points [-]

up-voted, but I don't think it's simple arithmetic that they're missing, there's a lot of ideological baggage preventing the masses from seeing nuclear as the better alternative.

I'd caution against such under estimation of people's mental capacities, if only they knew how to add and subtract almost entirely misses the point-and is too condescending, not good PR.

politics is the mind killer seems to be relevant here.

Comment author: sketerpot 02 March 2010 10:43:47PM 7 points [-]

I never said that they're incapable of doing the math, just that they don't. For whatever reason. No further condescension is intended; just a really helpful suggestion.

Comment author: h-H 02 March 2010 11:06:29PM 2 points [-]

ok, I see your point.