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GuySrinivasan comments on For progress to be by accumulation and not by random walk, read great books - Less Wrong
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It came from the Amazon description, actually. I've edited the comment to make that clear.
Thank you - I might have also moved it to the end of the comment, just to make it clear that it related to the material in the comment, not material in the post. (You were the one who brought up "Plausible Reasoning", after all!)