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diegocaleiro comments on What Does Make a Difference? It’s Really Simple - Less Wrong
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Agree with your point. But notice that if we consider the case in which you actually win, which would be GuySrinivasan's proposal, then those 4 millions you win in the lottery could be invested in things that will have much greater proportional impact, for you'd be investing in the curve's tail....
Just a reminder. The post is NOT about politics and voting. It is about overdetermination and decision theory.
A quote from the linked article:
(it was 1 in 10 million in New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado)
If you want to make a post about overdetermination, I'd say don't use the voting example, since here's one person at the very least who thinks the example's far from clear-cut. The movies thing is fine - the probability enough people go to ruin everyone's experience times the experience ruined is still tiny, not plausibly large.