taw comments on The Importance of Goodhart's Law - Less Wrong

75 Post author: blogospheroid 13 March 2010 08:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (112)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: FAWS 14 March 2010 09:00:04PM 0 points [-]

I was going to raise two of the same points (Marshal plan and Soviet looting), but I would consider only managing to not fall even further behind a relative failure. And that's with both the FRG (e. g. giving the GDR access to the EC market) and the Soviets ( can't find a source right now but IIRC they tried to prove that the socialist system could allow a high standard of living) trying to prop up their economy towards the end of that period.

Comment author: taw 14 March 2010 09:30:44PM 3 points [-]

I would consider only managing to not fall even further behind a relative failure.

The paper I've linked to so many times deals with this converge question. There seems to be no evidence for any kind of global economic convergence - or any worldwide correlation between economic levels and economic growth - you seem to only converge to levels of your geographically close trading partners. East Germany mostly traded with countries even poorer than itself. West Germany traded mostly with very rich countries.

Of course you could ask question like "so why didn't the trade more with the Western Europe and USA etc.", but you could be asking the same question about Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, New Zealand, and countless other countries which did worse than Communist average.

Overall, evidence for Communism being an economic failure is shockingly underwhelming relative to how widely and strongly it is believed.

Comment author: FAWS 14 March 2010 10:09:22PM 1 point [-]

I think recovery after war and plundering is a bit different than normal convergence. Wrecked developed nations don't behave like developing nations of the same GDP. Since a main difference was East Germany being even more wrecked more of their GDP growth should have been of the easier rebuilding/recovery sort.