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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong
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The only other thing I ever heard about it was on a local news channel. It didn't really help one way or the other because they said it was military flares, but they claimed they were shot off after I saw the lights and the video they showed of the flares didn't resemble what I saw (they were much too small and moved too fast). I honestly wish I never saw the damn thing.
This sounds like you're a bit too scared that it has an "unnatural" explanation. If it did happen, there's a normal explanation for it. Curious, yes, scared, no.
This is exactly why I wish it didn't happen. I can't think of anything else I would tell someone about that would cause them to say "if it did happen...". Either I could provide enough evidence for my claim or my reputation as a truth-teller would be sufficient. Not so, in this case.
I think you're misreading a logical statement as a statement of uncertainty.
I see your point. After rereading it, I see that I didn't really have any reason for interpreting it as being particularly uncertain, as opposed to a conditional statement. Perhaps it would be less ambiguous if it was spoken instead of written.