simplicio comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong

97 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 March 2010 11:23PM

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Comment author: taw 15 March 2010 03:53:56PM 2 points [-]

You can tell someone is irrational if they don't believe global warming is happening.

It's not like a normal person can observe such changes - we're talking fraction of a degree over lifetime so far (Wikipedia says 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over entire 20th century).

It's a matter of your level of trust in "mainstream" scientists, and there's nothing particularly irrational about not having terribly much trust here.

And even global warming is real, it's still instrumentally rational to be wrong - let other people limit their carbon emissions, the world in which you drive SUV and everyone else overpays for Priuses is the optimal world for you to live in. (it would be even better to believe correctly in global warming, but be cynical enough to not give a shit about it, but many people have some sort of cynicism limit...)

Comment author: simplicio 15 March 2010 04:08:33PM 5 points [-]

it's still instrumentally rational to be wrong - let other people limit their carbon emissions

I'd describe that as a rationalization of egoism, wouldn't you?

Comment author: taw 15 March 2010 04:14:56PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: simplicio 15 March 2010 04:48:45PM *  4 points [-]

Key word there was rationalization. If terminology is the problem, replace "egoism" by "selfishness" and my point remains the same.

I don't buy rational egoism. What is rational is whatever advances one's goals - goals which may or may not be selfish. Considering our inbuilt empathy & love for our families, the general case is that our goals will not be purely selfish.

Even if I was a rational egoist, though, actually believing something against evidence (as distinct from declaring belief or not caring) is utterly irrational.