JulianMorrison comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong

97 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 March 2010 11:23PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (1329)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: RobinZ 17 March 2010 04:35:13PM 1 point [-]

The data proposed to support the gap is awfully weak - and I think that is the correct response for an educated layperson.

Comment author: JulianMorrison 17 March 2010 04:46:51PM 0 points [-]

My first reaction is: I think the simplest hypothesis is a continuous tree ring record. It's continuous everywhere else. A sudden gap needs more than a just-so-story about Romans to justify it.

Also:

There are enough samples to satisfy professionals that they actually have the whole 2000 years covered, but the sample overlaps for the gap between the blocks are few and rather weak.

That sounds very much like fitting the evidence to the hypothesis.

Comment author: RobinZ 17 March 2010 04:58:44PM 2 points [-]

I'll grant you that the idea might be worth testing - for example, by radiocarbon dating calibrated on other dendro data - but I don't think it has been shown convincingly enough to outweigh the historical accounts.