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thomblake comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong
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This is exactly why I wish it didn't happen. I can't think of anything else I would tell someone about that would cause them to say "if it did happen...". Either I could provide enough evidence for my claim or my reputation as a truth-teller would be sufficient. Not so, in this case.
I think you're misreading a logical statement as a statement of uncertainty.
I see your point. After rereading it, I see that I didn't really have any reason for interpreting it as being particularly uncertain, as opposed to a conditional statement. Perhaps it would be less ambiguous if it was spoken instead of written.