cupholder comments on Undiscriminating Skepticism - Less Wrong

97 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 March 2010 11:23PM

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Comment author: cupholder 23 March 2010 08:58:25PM 0 points [-]

My estimate of the probability of homeopathy working and the current laws of physics being very different would have to be of similar order to my estimate of the probability of the current laws of physics being correct.

Comment author: brazil84 23 March 2010 11:49:15PM *  0 points [-]

And how do you come up with your probability estimates in a situation like this? Do you rely on your general knowledge and common sense? Do you have some algorithm you follow?

Comment author: cupholder 24 March 2010 12:32:03AM -1 points [-]

No, I don't have a strict algorithm I follow in situations like this. What I actually do is probably more like this:

  • do some initial reading to get an idea of the basic plausibility of the hypothesis based on my background knowledge
  • let the hypothesis bounce around my mind for a while
  • try to spell out to myself the resulting gut feeling for the hypothesis' probability
  • check that rough estimate for any gaping flaws
  • if that rough estimate is really low, reject the hypothesis as Too Unlikely To Debate for the time being (remember that 'super careful' warning I made a few posts up? This is where it applies)
  • if the rough estimate is instead very high, accept the hypothesis as Too Likely To Debate for the time being
  • if the probability estimate is more middling, and the hypothesis' truthiness is important to me, gather more data and try to hone my hunch for the hypothesis' probability