I don't think it's a question of "insufficient effort" really - the claim you made in this post was simply incorrect

See my reply to you in that context.

This post seems to include a valid argument, but it's a different type of argument from the ones you were talking about earlier in the thread.

That post is approximately the same argument as the one you consider incorrect. The first instance just didn't make the reduction to "logical reasoning about probabilities" sufficiently explicit and used too much potentially ambiguous language.