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thomblake comments on Human values differ as much as values can differ - Less Wrong
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If I had to make a wild guess, I might guess that 75% of people in the modern world would say they would rather have been a king in 4000BC. (More, if you exclude the people who say they would rather have been a farmer in 4000BC than a king in 4000BC.) My 50% confidence interval is 25%-95%. Anybody want to do a survey?
I would also guess the number who say they would rather be a king is smaller than the number of people who would actually prefer being a king, because people overestimate how much they would miss modern conveniences, and because saying you'd like to be king is frowned on nowadays.
Correct me if I'm wrong - I'm pretty new to this game. Does this entail that you'd assign about a 50% probability that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that?
That's an implication, yes.
So, based on those numbers, you think it's more likely that either 0%-25% or 95%+ of the people would say that, than that 35%-85% would say that? (assuming nonzero probability to 25%-35% or 85%-95%)
Based on those number, yes. But I didn't consider both sides like that. I may have erred in overcompensating for the tendency of people to make too-small confidence intervals.
Ah, good. I was afraid I'd misunderstood.