FAWS comments on Omega's subcontracting to Alpha - Less Wrong
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Comments (90)
No, it's not. If, conditional on me always rejecting the £10 when Omega makes this specific prediction, Omega would visit when the envelope was empty, offer £10 and make the different prediction that I'd take it (the assumption being that I wouldn't refuse it without reason so Omega can't make the true prediction that I'd do so), or if, conditional on me always taking the £10 when Omega makes this specific prediction, Omega would visit when the envelope was full, offer £10 and make the different prediction that I'd take it that would change the payoff. If only the first was true that would make the scenarios equivalent.
I take it of course.