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mattnewport comments on Understanding your understanding - Less Wrong

69 Post author: SilasBarta 22 March 2010 10:33PM

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Comment author: mattnewport 23 March 2010 11:12:51PM *  2 points [-]

Chapters 1 and 2 of Jaynes' Probability Theory: The Logic of Science show how Bayes' theorem follows necessarily from certain basic principles of plausible reasoning. In some sense all roads lead to Bayes when trying to derive a consistent mathematical procedure for manipulating degrees of plausibility.

Comment author: cupholder 23 March 2010 11:25:00PM 0 points [-]

You are quite right. I thought about mentioning the Cox-Jaynes road to Bayes' theorem in my post, but decided that someone trying to reconstruct Bayes' theorem would be more likely to get to it by muddling through intuitively via conditional probability.