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Jordan comments on An empirical test of anthropic principle / great filter reasoning - Less Wrong
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I don't have specifics either, but I do have some intuition. I know about volcanic islands. I know about volcanic eruptions in recent history. I know about past cities destroyed by volcanoes. I have some idea about how far into the ocean tribal-level technology can take you. I have some idea as to how fast people tend to spread out and explore in general.