= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
PhilGoetz comments on An empirical test of anthropic principle / great filter reasoning - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (39)
The prior for reaching a hard-to-reach island should be lower than the prior for an easy-to-reach island. The prior for a hard-to-reach island existing may be the same as the prior for an easy-to-reach island existing. So you have to state your terms clearly before you can state your priors.
(Maybe the prior for an existing island being hard-to-reach is higher, since "easy-to-reach" should mean "easier than considerably more than half of all islands.").
That's not how I understood it. These are just types of islands that are supposed to exist in some hypothetical world. Arbitrarily, we say there are 10 islands of each type. That's all that 1/4 means here.