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timtyler comments on SIA won't doom you - Less Wrong
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What kind of terminal setback other than extinction, would stop humanity from making significant "progress towards galactic civilisation" sometime during, say, the next 100 million years?
A "terminal setback" is pretty similar to extinction, by definition. There are a few examples: life forming a single navel-gazing wireheading organism would be a pretty "terminal" setback.
However, we face many more roadblocks on the way to forming a galactic civilization. We have to master, intelligence, nanotechnology, fusion, space flight, and then we have to agree to devote large quantities of resources to interstellar colonisation.
I fully expect that we will do those things - but I take such a more detailed analysis as evidence that we are past most of the roadblocks - not as evidence that we are likely to accidentally annihilate ourselves!