Stuart_Armstrong comments on SIA won't doom you - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 25 March 2010 05:43PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (31)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 26 March 2010 06:23:18PM -1 points [-]

Her example makes no account for the time period at which each civilization reaches each stage. For her example to work, she'd have to come up with a model where civilizations appear and mature at different time intervals, then apply the SIA to civilizations at our level and in our current time period, and then show that this implies a late great filter.

It can be done, quite easily, but there are also models where SIA implies an early filter, or none at all. SIA boosts some worlds, and some of the worlds boosted by SIA have late filters, others have early filters.

The argument is not yet completed.